It is Good Friday, traditionally a day from which many people draw hope. We’ll likely forever remember this Easter and Passover season for reasons which are quite different from any we’d ever imagined. Still, both holidays remind us of hope, deliverance and a better day to come. Those are good thoughts to keep in mind as we move forward.
I’d like to say a special thank you to every one who helped organize this morning’s food distribution downtown. Cars lined up well before the official 9:00 a.m. starting time and food was being distributed. When last I checked in, an hour after it began, over 200 boxes and bags had been given out and there were fifty cars in line with people waiting for food. It was heart-warming that the work was being done and chilling to see in such stark relief the number of people who need food.
International News:
As you can see from the included charts, the curve isn’t showing any leveling off. The chart includes data through yesterday (4/8) despite the fact that the most recent day labeled below the chart is April 1. The source is here and you can move your mouse over the chart to see what the totals were each day and that the more recent days are included.
The midday numbers show 1,624,047 cases and 97,298 deaths. This represents about a 5.5% 24 increase in cases and about a 8.1% increase in deaths. The increase in cases is slightly less than yesterday and the increase in deaths is slightly more. A singled day does not make a trend, but a higher figure for deaths is to be expected for a while in that deaths trail the cases.
The U.S. continues to lead the world in cases and is now second in total deaths. Spain, Italy, Germany and France continue to identify about 4,000 to 5,000 new cases a day, which reflects an ongoing concern, but a much better rate than previously seen in those countries. Sweden is getting continued scrutiny for its more laissez faire approach, though they are pushing back on the perception they are doing very little. It now has the eighth highest death rate in the world per capita (excluding countries with 650,000 and fewer citizens).
National News:
As stated above, the U.S. continues to lead the world in total cases. New York alone has a greater number of cases than any other country in the world, outside our own. We are now second in total deaths behind Italy and we are likely to surpass their total today or tomorrow. For per capita numbers which may make for more fair comparisons, and excluding countries with a similar or smaller population to Knox County, the U.S. has the 8th highest per capita case rate, the 10th highest per capita death rate and 22nd highest rate of testing per capita in the world.
The current numbers indicate 475,237 recognized cases and 17,055 deaths. This reflects a 24 hour increase of about 9% in cases and a 14.7% overnight increase in deaths. The numbers are very close to those posted yesterday. Total new cases yesterday were 33,536 new cases and 1900 new deaths. As seen in the chart above, new cases seem to have hit a plateau. Deaths will take slightly longer to do so.
It’s important to keep in mind how New York’s numbers, because of their population, have and will continue to distort the national picture. The rate in a number of places around the country continues to rise, but because New York’s numbers will be dropping and they are much larger, the country’s numbers will be dropping.
The dynamic tension between opening the economy back up and keeping current social distancing measures in place continue to frame much of the national discourse. President Trump has made it clear he wants the economy open as soon as possible, while members of his medical team are pushing caution. He said in yesterday’s press conference that more widespread testing wouldn’t be a bad thing but implied it would not be a necessary piece to have in place for returning the country to work. Dr. Fauci had a conflicting view:
The keys are to make sure that we have in place the things that were not in place in January.” He said the government would need the capacity to use robust testing for “identification, isolation, contact tracing. There will be cases, we’ve got to be able to act on them in a very deliberate way that doesn’t allow us to get into the situation we find ourselves right now.
- Seeing a slow rate of increase and are pleased, but it is steady and the curve has not turned. She says we can’t say we have seen the worst.
- Regarding benchmarks to look for to open up the economy, she said it is a complicated and ongoing conversation.
- With the Governor’s deadline for the current restrictions looming, she was asked would we look at extending ours if he lifted his. She said it depends on the data and it is unknown at this time what the governor may do with regard to the limitations.
- Asked about the specifics of the new criteria for being tested, she said there are more details, but it includes looking at people who have more risk and people with fewer or different symptoms. She said more information would be forthcoming.
- Asked who can get a test right now, she said it depends on providers.
- She said they communicate to other departments in the region. She said social distancing seems to be helping across the region.
- More outpatient providers now have tests and she said that is encouraging.
- She said “recovered” means symptom-free for 72 hours.
- She said information is coming out on immunities, but it is too early to draw conclusions.
- Given national reports of racial disparities, she said no real surprises were noted when rates by ethnicity and zip codes were examined.