It’s another chilly and dreary day in the city. In addition to a beautiful spring, we’ve had a lot of damp, cool weather since January. Maybe the two are related or maybe they are just normal and I’m paying more attention this year. Tomorrow starts a string of much warmer days. We maybe be heading toward our summer temperatures. Maybe that will help in our fight against the coronavirus. Here’s hoping. In the meantime, here’s where we are:
International News:
Today, close to mid-day, the site I rely most on for numbers and data, Worldometers (there are a lot of accurate, reliable sites, but I like the way this one presents its data and the way it can be moved around to look at the pandemic through different sets of lens), there are 4,376,374 confirmed cases of COVID-19 worldwide, and 294,484 deaths.
According to the site, there were 85,312 new cases confirmed yesterday and 5,340 deaths. After four consecutive days of decreases in the number of new cases, this represents an increase back to the middle of the range (roughly 70K to 100K daily) where the numbers have remained for the last month.
Similarly, world-wide daily deaths had seen a four day decline, but yesterday’s number places it back in the range where it has generally remained for the last month. Since April 1, most days have produced between 5K and 7.5K deaths, with brief deviations above and below. April 17 was the deadliest day to date, with 8,429 deaths.
While the U.S. continues to lead the world in total and new cases and deaths each day, Russia continues to see its numbers surge, with over 10,000 new cases added daily for the last ten consecutive days. Its reported deaths continues to be reported as very low, suggesting that either their death rate is lower than most of the of the world or their numbers are not complete.
While most of Europe has settled into the range of 1,000 new cases per day, the U.K. continues to add over 3,000 each day and sometimes more. It has not been below the 3,000 mark since March 30. Whereas it ranks 21st in world population, it now ranks fourth in the world in total cases and second in the world in total deaths. It is one of a number of countries which will need to do a hard examination and analysis of why it did so much worse during the pandemic than would be expected and relative to other similar countries.
In addition to the above countries, Brazil, India, Peru, Saudi Arabia, Peru, Pakistan, Chile and Qatar, among others continue to see a troubling rate of increase, though some of these countries have smaller total numbers, so far. India’s numbers are almost certainly much higher as they have one of the worst testing programs in the world.
They have tested about 1,275 citizens per million. For comparison, the U.S. has tested over 30,000 per million, while the world leader of relatively populous countries, Denmark, has tested over 57,000 citizens per million. The twin problems of their massive population and the extreme poverty will likely keep them from ever testing to the levels of most developed countries. China is the only other country in their population range, and they are much wealthier and have not released their testing information.
Some European countries are taking tentative steps to re-open travel, while elsewhere there are reversals. Hong Kong has reported its first cases (3) after over three weeks of no new cases being reported. Due to new infections, Lebanon is reversing course after opening up and reentering a lockdown. Saudi Arabia has also reversed course from re-opening and is now tightening down, once more.
National News:
There are now 1,411,929 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the United States. There are 83,612 deaths attributed to the disease. Yesterday saw an increase of 22,802 cases and 1,630 deaths. As with world numbers, this reverses a brief downturn in new cases, which had trended downward for four days, dropping below 20,000 new daily cases for the first time since March.
Daily deaths, which had dropped for five consecutive days from over 2,500 to under 1,000 had increased Monday to 1,008 before increasing once more to yesterday’s total of 1,630. The often cited Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, which gave us the early shocking projection of 100,000 to 240,000 deaths and later reduced it to 60,000 projected deaths before August has continued to move its projection upward, now saying it projects 147,000 deaths in the U.S. by August, with a possible range of 113,000 to 227,000.
The U.S. now has the fifth worst number of per capita cases in the world (among modestly populous countries) and the ninth worst per capita death rate in the world. The U.S. ranks about 24th among populous countries in testing per capita, though it leads the world in total number of tests given.
As the country attempts to re-open its economy, increasing attention is turning to children, young people and the reopening of schools and colleges. In a national first, California State Colleges announced they would not hold in-person classes this fall. The other system in the state, the University of California system, says it is unlikely to fully re-open.
Dr. Fauci, testifying before the senate yesterday, was asked by Senator Lamar Alexander, specifically to picture a University like the University of Tennessee and to project what he sees for the fall. He said, “the idea of having treatments available, or a vaccine, to facilitate the reentry of students into the fall term would be something of a bit of a bridge too far . . .”
The article above also noted that Harvard has stated it is preparing for most, if not all of its classes to be delivered online this fall. It went on to say that a number of northeastern private schools are considering mergers and as many as 25 are at risk of closing permanently.
Regarding public elementary through high school openings, a number of people have supported opening in fall with modifications for those students given the low incidence of COVID-19 deaths among the age group. The primary focus of concern has been on the impact on parents and other family members, as well as teachers and other workers, given that children can asymptomatically spread the disease.
Now initial conventional wisdom is being questioned as more children are being reported to have Pediatric Multi-System Inflammatory Syndrome Potentially Associated with COVID-19. The reports have come in from several countries and several parts of the United States of the odd set of symptoms. It has been reported in eleven states. Three childhood deaths have been reported in New York from the syndrome.
State and Local News:
The state of Tennessee is currently reporting (as of yesterday afternoon) 16,100 cases of COVID-19 and 264 related deaths. These numbers reflect a twenty-four hour increase of 566 cases and 13 deaths. This continues the higher numbers we saw yesterday. For point of comparison, one week ago today the twenty-four hour increases were 122 new cases and 7 deaths. Two weeks ago the twenty-four hour increases were 134 and 4. It seems clear Tennessee is seeing a sharp increase in cases and deaths relative to recent numbers.
In other numbers, the state is also reporting 19 new hospitalizations for the virus yesterday and 283,924 tests given since the beginning of the pandemic, with 10,647 coming yesterday. About half those diagnosed with the illness have recovered. Yesterday, the state reports, 298 were pronounced recovered, meaning that the number of active cases grew yesterday by 268.
Knox County, however, continues to show a steady increase, much as it has for the last month. To date, 307 people in Knox County have been diagnosed with the illness. 69 are still active and 37 total have been hospitalized, only 2 remain in the hospital.
The increase in cases from yesterday is six new cases, in line with what we have seen most of the last month. The largest cohorts of those being diagnosed with the illness continue to be people in their 20s or 30s. Nearly sixty percent of cases are male and the zip code with the most confirmed cases continues to be 37919.
Knox County Health Department Briefing:
Charity Menefee started by thanking the phone bank workers at the Health Department. They have fielded more than 10,000 calls since the pandemic response started in March. She shifted to testing availability saying the three days (M-W-F) of drive through testing at the Health Department will continue, with targeted testing the other days and tests available at private providers.
She confirmed the above numbers. She addressed masks saying that we wear them for others as our mask protects others and vise versa.
Questions:
- Concerns have been expressed about the current masks being distributed by the health department. Do they meet CDC guidelines? We think they reduce the spread of droplets and any further questions should be referred to the state, which is distributing them. Masks simply should reduce droplet spread.
- Complaints total 131 since May 1. They are following up.
- What is the probability of opening local pools this summer? It depends on what happens next. We should soon be getting data from the reopening and that will help us.
- If people test positive or have been exposed directly, they should stay home, including at businesses.
- We handed out over 900 yesterday at the health department.
- Vanderbilt drastically reset their projections for statewide hospitalization to 300 statewide. Does that change our approach locally? No.
- Have there been clusters reported at public housing facilities? No. They will be tested this week.
- For personal pools, should you have people outside the family join you in your pool? Please follow CDC guidelines, including no more than 10 people.
- If a worker tests positive at a store, should customers be tested who shopped there? Not necessarily. Generally exposure is limited if you are maintaining social distance, the workers are wearing masks, and the contact was brief (ten minutes is often talked about as a marker).
- With Memorial Day coming up, what message do you have for the public? The same as always, hand washing, disinfecting surfaces, no more than 10 people gathering, wear masks if you can’t social distance.
- Are we on a positive track for phase one? It’s early, but yes.
- Children’s Hospital said they may have two of the cases of the childhood inflammatory illness. Do you know of others? No.