It’s been a sobering weekend for anyone seriously tracking the virus. I hope you were able to get some sunshine, take some long breaks from the news and otherwise try to keep yourself mentally healthy. I am going for long walks when possible and I’ll share some of the photographs I take. This weekend also brought the Second Bell Sofa Soiree which was a great success, raising money for local musicians and businesses.The links are still available for donations and are posted on the site linked above. Plans are afoot to post the footage in case you missed the concert. Kudos to Rusty Odom and Blank Newspaper for putting it all together.
International News:
Confirmed cases of COVID-19 grew by about 50% world-wide over the weekend to about 750,000. Deaths increased by about 40% to over 35,000. At that rate, the mortality rate would roughly double every two days. Italy continues to lead the world in deaths, with about 11,000, which reflects about a 25% increase over the weekend. The number of deaths for Italy and Spain are staggering when seen through the lens of deaths per million, which are 178 and 146 respectively. As a comparison, the U.S. currently has a death rate of 4 per million, though we are earlier in our curve.
National News:
It’s hard to know where to start. We’ve increasingly gotten news from around the world (Prince Charles, Boris Johnson, Placido Domingo) and the country (Rand Paul, Kevin Durant) and others have the virus. We’re hearing large numbers of the NYPD and medical professionals across the country are getting the virus. Announcements of the deaths of some well-known people are now forthcoming, with news this weekend that country singer Joe Diffe (61) and CBS News Producer Maria Mercader (54). We all have different connections to various singers, actors, artists, politicians and celebrities in general, but the one that hit me the hardest this weekend was word that John Prine is critically ill with COVID-19.
The numbers in the U.S. continue to explode. Last week the U.S. became the world’s largest center for infections. Over the weekend, confirmed cases crossed 100,000 and increased about 80% from Friday’s mid-day number to about 145,000. Deaths have more than doubled since mid-day Friday, going from over 1300 deaths to about 2700 at midday today. Put another way, the U.S. took two months to go from one case to one thousand cases. The next thousand took two days.
The president continues to hold daily briefings. The sentient details to be announced this weekend included a travel advisory for New York, New Jersey and Connecticut, asking that residents there refrain from traveling outside their states for the next fourteen days. New York continues to lead the country in confirmed cases, with over 60,000, meaning it currently has over half the cases in the U.S. For perspective, if New York was a country, it would rank seventh in the world. New Jersey is just behind it with close to 14,000 cases, while Connecticut ranks 14th out of the 50 states.
Also coming out of the White House briefings this weekend was news that the social distancing request will continue through April 30, which is a wild swing from last week when President Trump suggested strongly that we may be on the verge of filling churches by Easter (April 12). It appears that his medical team convinced him the curve we are facing looks very grim.
That was most clearly illustrated by his apparent acceptance of data suggesting we could see 100,000 to 200,000 deaths from the virus and stating that if we hit the low end of that, we will have done a “very good job.” It was a shocking statement to hear a number that large cited as a positive outcome. It is also jarring coming from a leader who said on February 26, that in a matter of days we would be “close to zero.”
State and Local:
As of mid-day today, the state of Tennessee has crossed 1800 confirmed cases of COVID-19. This represents almost double the cases from last Thursday (the numbers I last used). There have now been ten confirmed deaths across the state. Memphis has become a new hotspot in the state, with Shelby County reported more positive tests than Davidson County (Nashville). The biggest news of the weekend came out of Sumner County where a single nursing home has produced 115 positive tests among residents and staff. Two have died.
Knox County Health Department’s tracking site acknowledges 57 cases in the county, which is almost twice the number since Friday. Of those, 17 have recovered and 8 have been hospitalized. There is no indication of deaths on the site. In a briefing by Children’s Hospital this weekend it was stated that that hospital had no patients at that time that were confirmed positive for COVID-19.
For great local coverage of the pandemic, please read Compass and subscribe, if you can (COVID-19 coverage is free). They are doing a great job of local coverage and deserve to be supported.
Health Department Briefing (3/30/2020, 12:30 PM)
Dr. Buchanan stressed that it takes time to see the results of social distancing, with the goal to slow the spread, not to stop it. They are working with businesses and are getting fewer complaints from the public have lessened, which makes her think compliance is good. She noted that the Health Department has partnered with other agencies. KEMA and others have worked to coordinate a response. She noted that this is not simply a health event, but also an economic event and that many may be struggling economically.
She stressed safely staying in contact with others and taking a break from coverage and texting T-N to 741741 for help locally. She said she has not been told there have been more suicides since the group last week.
One person died from the virus over the weekend. No further details were given other than they were a member of a high risk population and did get the virus through community spread. Asked about the April 30 date currently in place nationally, versus a statement made by Mayor Jacobs that it was hoped businesses locally would be open sooner. She said they will use data to make that decision and that she has power to close businesses, but they are working together.
She said they are continuing to do contact tracing even though it is more difficult with the larger number. She said they are working seven days a week and have mobilized personnel to help with non-medical jobs to free up more time for work that requires medical expertise. Asked about county-wide hotspots, she said they have not done mapping specifically, but they have not seen clusters anecdotally.
She reported that the county has begun receiving additional supplies and those are being distributed. She said there is a plan should there be an issue like that at the nursing home in Sumner County and additional resources would be made available. She confirmed there has been one case in an assisted living facility.