COVID-19: 8/11/2020 Update

Worldwide Daily Cases 8.11.2020 (Source: Worldometers.com)

It’s a new day and a great day for beginnings. I was pleased to tell the story this morning of a new business opening in the downtown area. Lauren’s inspirational spirit during a difficult time was good for me to hear. Despite obstacles, whether international in scope or very personal, we all have the opportunity to find a new path forward, to pursue dreams and to and to work toward a better day. Today’s a good day to start the journey.

International News:

Since the beginning of the pandemic, 20,290,216 people have been diagnosed with COVID-19. Of these, 739,980 have died. 13,213,281 people have recovered and 6,336,955 people remain ill. Yesterday, an additional 216,302 people were reported to have the illness and 4,580 died.

Yesterday’s new case total reflects an increase of more than 16,000 over the same day last week. Consequently, the seven-day average has shown an increase, reversing the slow downward trend in world cases over the previous two weeks, but remaining in the narrow range where it has remained for that period. The seven-day average now sits at 257,998 cases per day.

Yesterday’s 4,580 deaths compares to 4,397 the same day the previous week, or an increase of about 200. The seven-day average, continuing its slow upward trend, is now 5,886 deaths per day. This is roughly the same as the death rate at the end of April. Countries reporting the most deaths yesterday include India (887), Brazil (721) and the U.S. (569).

Worldwide Daily Deaths 8.11.2020 (Source: Worldometers.com)

The same four countries reported over 10,000 new cases yesterday: India (53,016), the U.S. (49,800), Brazil (21,888), and Colombia (10,142). Of the four, India is seeing the most rapid increases, while Brazil and Colombia have flattened new cases recently and the U.S. has tracked downward. Twenty-two countries reported 1,000 or more new cases yesterday.

The flattening may be real in both Brazil and Colombia as they have improved their testing programs significantly. India is also increasing testing, but their massive population makes achieving desired levels difficult. The U.S. continues to lead the world in total testing, with over 66,000,000 tests given. In countries with over 1,000,000 in population, the United Arab Emirates (Population 9.9 million) leads the world in testing per million. In countries with over 10 million in population, the U.K. leads the world in per capita testing and the U.S. is third.

Mexico has started phase three trials for vaccines from China and the U.S. Amid international skepticism, Russia has registered the world’s first coronavirus vaccine, though testing continues. A Brazilian state has offered to manufacture the new Russian drug. New Zealand, which had reported over 100 days with no new cases of COVID-19, now has reported four new cases. As a result, Auckland, the country’s largest city, will begin a new lock down on Wednesday.

U.S. Daily Cases 8.11.2020 (Source: Worldometers.com)

National News:

Since the beginning of the pandemic, 5,255,392 Americans have been diagnosed with COVID-19 and 166,345 have died. Over 2.7 million have recovered and about 2.4 million people remain ill. Yesterday, 49,800 new cases were reported in the U.S. and 569 people died.

The seven-day average increased yesterday to 55,142 after a slight increase over same-day numbers from last week. It’s the most recent indication that the decline experienced over the last three weeks may be leveling off. It remains about 5,900 lower than a week ago, when the numbers were continuing to decline.

The 569 deaths reported yesterday corresponds closely to the 546 deaths reported the same day the previous week. The seven-day average sits at 1,038 and has remained within about 100 of that number since the beginning of August. The welcome leveling comes after a month of steady increases.

U.S. Daily Deaths 8.11.2020 (Source: Worldometers.com)

Nine states reported more than 1,000 new cases yesterday, a recent low. Of those, four states reported multiple thousands, including California (10,752), Texas (6,401), Florida (4,155), and Georgia (2,429). Other southeastern states with high numbers for yesterday include Alabama (#5), Tennessee (#8), North Carolina (#9), South Carolina (#16), Virginia (#18), and Arkansas (#19).

Both Florida and Texas are testing far few people than just a few weeks earlier even though each have an extremely high positive test result rate of one side or the other of 20%. The rate of U.S. homicides always increases in the summer, but this summer is seeing an unusually high spike which may or may not be related to emerging from lock downs. Amid reports the Big Ten may not have a football season this fall, President Trump is pushing for a season, noting the players are young and healthy and would not likely die if they caught the illness.

Tennessee Daily Cases 8.11.2020 (Source: TN.gov)

State and Local News:

123,914 Tennesseans have been diagnosed with COVID-19 and 1,233 have died with the illness. 1,202 new cases were reported yesterday, along with 10 additional deaths. 2,173 people were moved to the recovered category, dropping the active case count to 39,511. 35 additional hospitalizations were reported last night and the current total of COVID-19 positive hospitalized patients across the state is 1,113, a number which has remained remarkably steady.

Tennessee Daily Testing and Positive Test Result Rate 8.11.2020 (Source: Johns Hopkins University)

About 14.8 thousand test results were reported yesterday, bringing the state total to over 1.7 million. As it has in Texas and Florida, testing rates have declined in Tennessee, as seen in the chart above. The positive test-result rates have remained remarkably steady at around 8 to 9%. Given a steady rate, the number of tests given a date will dictate the number of new cases found.

To be more concrete: Yesterday’s test number was 27.6K and the state reported 2,154 new cases (7.8%) and today the test number reported dropped to 14.8K and new cases dropped to 1,202, which sounds like an improvement, when it is nearly identical to the day before in positive test result rates (8.1%). It’s actually slightly worse. This is why averages matter, but even the averages are not helpful if testing is declining or inclining.

The four-day average the state uses, now sits at 1,891, while the seven day average for new cases sits at 1897. To compare them to recent averages is hampered significantly by the decline in testing.

It raises the question of whether our local numbers are reflecting improvement or a reduction in testing, as well, since our local data is a part of the state total. Locally, case numbers have fallen in recent days to fewer than 100 each day, and the update on numbers of tests reported will be interesting to see tomorrow. Prior to recent days, the number was running consistently over 100. A hopeful thought would be that masking is helping. The numbers are only a fair comparison, however, if testing has remained consistent.

Knox County Daily Cases 8.11.2020 (Source: Knox County Health Department)

Today, Knox County is reporting 84 new cases, to bring the total number of Knox County residents testing positive to 4,868. 2,728 people have recovered and 2,261 remain ill. The number of active cases has steadily remained between 2,000 to 2,300 for nearly two weeks.

Twenty six Knox County residents are currently hospitalized with the illness, bringing that total to 223 since the beginning of the pandemic. This number also represents a decline in recent weeks, which is, perhaps, the best indication that we’ve truly improved. No additional deaths were reported today. Probable cases, contrary to all the other numbers, have been rising and now sit at 167.

Comments

  1. What exactly is a “probable case”? Why haven’t these folks been tested? Or does this mean they may have gotten a false negative?

    • KnoxvilleUrbanGuy says

      I suspect there are several ways to land in the category but, primarily, it means you have had exposure and have symptoms. No one can require you to be tested, so you are probable. Some people get tested and moved to the active category and others get better and are dropped. At least that is my best understanding. Anybody want to further explain or elaborate?

      • I know a family that three tested positive and one negative. But they all lost taste and smell, and exhibited classic Covid symptoms. So the one who tested negative is listed as probable. There was really no need to endure another test.

        • It could also be that you have all the symptoms, but are waiting on test results. It is also true that some people refuse to be tested, although I don’t understand why.

  2. Did you see the Vanderbilt study showing places with mask mandates are reporting fewer hospitalizations? That would seem consistent with the improvement we’re seeing in Knox County. Here’s a link: https://www.wmot.org/post/vanderbilt-counties-without-mask-mandates-seeing-more-covid-19-hospitalizations#stream/0

  3. How many deaths, in total and since the pandemic began, have occurred in Knox County?

    • KnoxvilleUrbanGuy says

      46 – 5 from March through June, then 41 in the last six weeks.

    • The number of tests given drops in red states of FL, TX, and here in TN. The number of reported cases also drops, although the positivity rate remains high, well above the epidemiological standard of 5%.

      We are within 100 days of the November election and suddenly things start to look rosier since most Americans don’t understand the grim truth in the high positivity rate.

      Is it a coincidence that red states are cutting their testing to yield lower case numbers with the election just around the corner? I don’t think so.

      Shame on all of these complicit elected officials for obscuring the truth and further endangering us.

  4. Bob Fischer says

    Since March, during the shelter in place edict, I have taken a scenic route home from work. My schedule is such that I’m able to track nightlife in the streets. I’ve begun to notice a correlation between crowds, masked individuals and how people in the business arena are handling them to positive cases two weeks out. The last week and one half has been encouraging. I’m beginning to notice more mask usage and have seen leadership on the curfew from businesses I had hoped to see leadership from. While I’m not positive at the root causes for the change (I suspect maybe a little bit of several things) I’m encouraged at what I see none the less. It would be disingenuous to suggest that there are no areas of concern, but things appear to be moving in a direction that will allow some degree of stability. As a town and county, we still have a shot to come together and produce an environment that would be safe for referees and the support staff required for football if we dedicate ourselves to this common goal for the next seven weeks. Beyond that, we’re dependent on the rest of the towns in the SEC to get their houses in order as well. Still a few consecutive nights of encouraging news is a good thing, regardless of all other circumstances.

    • Bob, I wish I shared your optimism. With students returning to UT from all across the country, and with K-12 schools about to reopen, I predict we are going to see a new wave. I would love to be wrong.

      As for football, smart leaders at some of the finest public universities in the country cancelled football for the PAC-12 and Big Ten today. They’re going to hope for spring football. (I for one would enjoy seeing that. I’m a football fan, and a UT fan/alum.) If we all behave as you say, I think that could be a legit possibility… but the SEC continues to engage in magical thinking.

  5. Alan have you heard anything about California? One of their lead health officials resigned and I’ve read via some local California papers that they have been underreporting cases over the past two weeks. It’s not effecting their reports of hospitalizations or deaths. Have you heard about any of this? Can’t find much information.

  6. Dean Schultz says

    KNOXVILLEURBANGUY,

    Thank you for your vigilance in reporting, gathering of information and bringing that to the community.

    I would like to say and it has nothing to do with your reporting. I’m getting numb to all the numbers. I think more should be focus on the recovery numbers rather than the glooming ones. We all know technically you need to see all #’s, its just to much. It’s almost and one could say, that throwing all of these numbers at the general population is an attempt to confuse, keep us off guard. And in no way do I mean you Alan.

    What I would like to know is the information “numbers” are these from multiple sources.? While it is my opinion, it happens all the time for many reasons . And of those reasons, the trail always leads back to greed and gain. With who can gain moire politically during an election cycle, to the greed of hospitals, pharmaceutical companies, and people like Dr. Fauci.

    Fauci is responsible for and has credited himself with the current medication out there now remdevisor, is shown to do more harm then good. He even stopped had to stop the clinical trials for remdevisor. He did just that but pushed it through to the open market. 60 cents a pill for HCQ, and an astounding $3100 a treatment for remdesivor. HCQ was already shown to help, and if not for the greed and gain, it would be more widely used in helping. One source for the correct information about remdesivor is from Gilead themselves due to results being inadvertently posted on WHO website. Mind you, that is just but one credited source.

    https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/23/data-on-gileads-remdesivir-released-by-accident-show-no-benefit-for-coronavirus-patients/

    Hospitals get 30,000 a bed, Doctors get rewarded with kick backs from the pharm companies to prescribe medication you don’t need or medication not right for you.

    This isn’t a conspiracy theory, but rather well known and documented. It is ironic that the majority of stated with the high numbers that overnight better are all battle ground states. It is plain as day, always has been and always will be the same in a greed driven capitalist society. The people taking the blow for all of this greed and corruption is not what the founding fathers intended by far.

    Sorry, I had to get that off my chest

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