This report is coming off of a beautiful East Tennessee weekend. I hope you were able to get out and enjoy some sunshine and a perfect temperature for a long walk. Some of the flowers have begun to fade, but the trees and bushes are that beautiful late spring/early summer lush green that we enjoy here in our end of the state.
Let’s take a quick look at what’s happened since last we checked in on the pandemic.
International News:
There are currently 4,221,404 confirmed cases of COVID-19 world-wide. There are 284,834 confirmed deaths. This weekend saw the numbers cross the 4 million mark in cases (Friday night). We crossed the quarter-million mark in deaths late last week. It took over two months for us to reach the first million cases. The second million took 13 days. The third million, 12 days, and the most recent million took 11 days.
Yesterday marked at least a momentary slowdown world-wide. Numbers vary from site-to-site depending on what time they conclude their 24 hour measurement, but most sites list yesterday as having the lowest daily increase since about April 30. Just three days earlier marked the second-highest daily increase in cases since the pandemic began. Whether any of this indicates a trend remains to be seen.
The numbers are gaining a lot of scrutiny and they are only as good as the testing and the reporting. While some seem to suggest the numbers are being inflated, it seems more likely to me they are much lower than is being reported. Both Mexico and Russia, for example, even with their alarming numbers are facing accusations from doctors in each of their capitals.
Additionally, many countries are reporting infections and deaths, but they are testing only a tiny percentage of their population. This is true of numerous states in the United States, as well, such as Tennessee, where we’ve tested less than 4% of our population. India is the nation where this is most exaggerated: Even though they are reporting significant increases, they have tested less than 1% of their population of 1.3 billion.
The United States continues to lead the world in new cases daily, though yesterday saw a recent low of just over 20,000 new cases. Russia, with a much smaller total number of infections and a smaller population is consistently adding 10,000 to 12,000 new cases a day, which is currently the second highest number of daily cases added in the world. Russia may pass Italy and the UK to claim the third highest total number of infections behind the U.S. and Spain. What is most difficult to believe in the Russian numbers is deaths, which are currently much lower than the case numbers would seem to suggest they might be.
In addition to trouble spots in the U.S., Russia and India, other countries continue to struggle with high infection rates. Brazil, the seventh most populous country in the world, has a very high rate of spread, as do Mexico, Peru, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Chile and Qatar. The countries with the highest rate of increase include six of the ten most populated countries in the world.
National News:
The United States currently has 1,371,677 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 80,910 deaths. Both cases (20,329) and deaths (750) were lower yesterday than they have been in some time. To find lower numbers requires going back to March 29 for both cases and deaths. This marks the fourth consecutive day of declines in both categories, which, hopefully, could mark a trend.
That said, I mentioned several weeks ago that the outsized numbers in the populous northeast, which had made total U.S. numbers look worse than rang true in other areas, would make our overall numbers look better than merited as they declined. There is some evidence this is the case. This AP article from six days ago demonstrates that outside New York, our rates are actually increasing, even as we open up our economy.
Here’s another from yesterday that makes the same point. It also notes that the widely-followed Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington has now raised its number of projected American deaths by August to 137,000. This is the model that predicted 60,000 just a few weeks ago, assuming nation-wide shelter-at-home orders would largely stay in place through May. As it has become obvious that most states chose to go forward with reopening sooner, the estimates have increased. The group cited “increased movement” as the reason for increasing the numbers.
State and Local:
The state of Tennessee is reporting 14,985 confirmed cases and 243 deaths. This reflects an increase of 889 cases since I reported on Friday and an increase of six deaths during the same period. About half the state-wide cases are counted as on-going and half as recovered. 1325 have been hospitalized at some point, including 6 yesterday. A total of 261,869 tests have been administered, including 9,121 yesterday. If each of these tests went to separate people, it would indicate that about 3.8% of Tennesseans have been tested.
Locally, the Knox County Health Department is reporting 295 cases and 5 deaths. While death numbers remain unchanged, there are 23 new cases confirmed in Knox County over the last seventy-two hours. The overnight increase from Sunday to Monday was 15, which is the highest daily increase since Knox County began tracking the illness.
There are currently 64 active cases (the highest reported at any single point) and the trend continues of larger numbers of active cases. There are currently two people reportedly hospitalized. Additionally, a controversy came to light over the weekend when it became known that a News Sentinel reporter was banned from Friday’s Zoom meeting with reporters.
The reporter has questioned the lack of clarity on precisely what would trigger a return to greater restrictions or change the colors of the traffic light graphics on the website to yellow or red from green. The Health Department said his reporting has been inaccurate. The Compass did a detailed story on what’s up.
Knox County Health Department Press Briefing:
Dr. Buchanan expressed gratitude to child care workers. She said they continue to distribute masks and M-W-F testing will be available this week on Dameron Avenue. She requested that people call for an appointment. She said the other days will be for more focused testing. She acknowledged the increase in active cases. She said the increases result from clusters and they are contacting those who might have been exposed.
Benchmark data (see above) will be updated weekly on Friday. She said metrics have been added to each of those guides. She said she did not make the decision to exclude a reporter, but was made by the county’s Communication Director. She feels the information provided is good and she intends to continue to work with reporters in a transparent way. She said they will get information out as quickly as possible, but those working to give out more information are the same people working to control the illness and that must take priority. She said the website will be improved as that is possible.
- With more testing we are seeing more cases. What would you say to the public? What you do is going to determine what happens next. Please wear masks, wash hands, social distance, etc.
- With news from AP over the weekend that information is being provided to first responders the names and addresses of the people who have tested positive. Is that happening in Knox County? We aren’t involved in that, it is the state.
- Is the identification of these people likely to make people avoid testing for fear of being identified? We have expressed this concern to the state.
- After a cluster of cases in the Hispanic community last weekend, what is the Health Department doing to reach out to these communities? Interpreters are in use and we are working with community groups who work with them.
- Do you have neighborhood specific testing planned this week? Yes, Londsdale and maybe others.
- Do you have information about the National Guard testing in area low income housing? We understand they will do that here this coming weekend.
- Last Friday you took a step forward in defining the mathematical calculations behind the graphics on the website. Will there be more detail about the calculations? We will make clear the data and reasons behind any changes of color on any of the metrics.
- Knox County is requiring face masks in a gym. Is that safe? It is a personal judgement. Each person has to decide if it is safe for them to exercise in mask, but they must wear one if they exercise in gym.
- Which hospitals are you working with and what would constitute a surge? We work with all regional hospitals. They are looking at their internal surge data and sharing that. Much of the data is on the website.
- The list of questions asked by contact tracers is on the state Department of Health website.
- How many complaints of non-compliance with guidelines have you received? Since May 1, 69 food complaints and 42 non-food complaints.
- We have 39 years of epidemiological experience looking at the numbers each day.
- Any surge would be defined by a rolling mean of hospitalizations, currently available rooms and what is the capacity of all the hospitals to add beds.
- No KCHD staff has tested positive.
- Nashville has different data because they have a larger number of cases from which you can extrapolate more.
- We are hopeful our metrics will indicate we can safely open up more after phase 1.
- Will you release county-level data on covid-like illnesses. The current way we are pulling data would not be ADA compliant to share. We are looking at how we can do that.
- How are we doing in this phase? It’s early. I wish more people would wear masks. Businesses are working with us. We will know more by late this week or early next week.
- Is Knox County short on any supplies? The health department isn’t and as far as I know the hospitals are not short on supplies.