Worldwide Daily Cases 11.2.2020 (Source: Worldometers.com)Welcome to a beautiful Monday. I hope you are outside enjoying some of this beautiful weather. We got outside a little for a family visit this weekend, watched “Casper,” played Halloween games, and watched a lot of Harry Potter and football. I love the commercial where the guy joins his friend to watch a game and asks, “Who’s playing?” His friend doesn’t take his eyes off the screen and replies, “Does it matter?” No, it does not.
Over 46.9 million people around the world have been diagnosed with COVID-19. Of these, just over 33.8 million have recovered and just over 1.2 million people have died. About 11.9 million people remain ill, about 1.6 million more active cases than the same day a week earlier. About 3,419,000 million have tested positive over the last week and about 45,750 people have died. Both numbers are significantly higher than the previous week (2,996,000 and 40,6000 respectively).
Yesterday, 437.3 thousand were diagnosed and 5,300 died. The same day the previous week, 406.4 and 4,500 deaths one reported. Two weeks ago, the world reached its first 400,000-day case number. A week later, there were four days over 400,000. The week just concluded saw four days over 500,000. A new world-wide daily record was set on Friday with 573,800 new cases reported. The daily record was broken three consecutive days.
The current seven-day average, a pandemic record, stands at 488,439 cases per day. Last week on the same day, the average was 428,000 cases per day. The current seven-day average for deaths is 6,537 per day. A week ago, on the same day, that number was 5,793 per day. The number of daily deaths is now the highest it has been since April 23.
The list of countries reporting the most deaths yesterday is shuffled a bit from last week, with Argentina replaced by Russia. In order, those countries are India (493), Mexico (464), Iran (434), the U.S. (399), and Russia (245). Sixteen countries reported at least 100 deaths for the day.
Even though Sunday is a low reporting day for deaths and cases, there were ten countries reporting at least 10,000 new cases yesterday, the same number as last week. As was the case last week, seven of the ten are European countries: the U.S. (71,321), India (46,441), France (46,290), Italy (29,907), the UK (23,254), Russia (18,665), Poland (17,171), Belgium (16,915), Germany (12,556), and Brazil (10,100).
Forty-eight different countries reported at least 1,000 new cases, up from 46 last week. The number has increased for weeks. Of the 48 countries, Europe continues to dominate the list with 21 countries represented. 15 Asian countries are included, six South American Countries and three African countries.
United Kingdom Prime Minister Boris Johnson is warning the number of deaths this winter could double the numbers seen in the country last spring. He is advocating for a four week lockdown for the country, which will likely start this week and will include complete closures for pubs, restaurants, gyms, non-essential shops and places of worship. The UK has the fifth highest total number of deaths in the world.
The story is much the same across Europe, with German ICU patients tripling in the last two weeks and the number from the spring is expected to be surpassed in the next two to three weeks, with the head of German hospitals saying “we can no longer prevent that.” Other European countries are quickly returning to lockdowns.
Meanwhile, in the southern hemisphere, Australia reported zero cases yesterday for the first time in five months. The country has drawn international praise for its handling of the pandemic.
About 9,480,000 Americans have been diagnosed with COVID-19, an increase of about 590,000 over the previous week. About 6.1 million have recovered and over 3.1 million remain ill, an increase of about 200,000 in active cases week-over-week. 236,505 people in the country have died of the illness, including 5,993 over the last week, an increase of about 200 from the previous week.
The U.S. continues to lead the world in new cases by a wide margin. New cases are now averaging 82,715 per day, up from just under 69,000 a week ago. New daily records for the pandemic were set three consecutive days last week and the four worst days of the pandemic for new cases were seen in the last seven days. Friday’s total is now the current record at 101,461 (other sources say just under 100,000, but I continue to use Worldometers.com as I have from early in the pandemic). The U.S. dropped to ninth in the world in per capita cases (it was surpassed by Kuwait) and it remains eighth in per capita deaths in the world (excluding countries with fewer than 1,000,000 population).
After a prolonged period of stability, deaths in the U.S. are on the rise. The seven-day average for deaths is currently 851 per day, up from 818 last week and 725 the previous week. With the explosion of cases across the country, the states reporting the most daily deaths often change daily. Yesterday the states reporting the most deaths were Illinois (35), Texas (33), Arkansas (33), Indiana (32), and Florida (27). Only two of those states were in the top five a week earlier.
Yesterday, thirteen states reported multiple thousands of new cases and twenty-seven reported at least 1,000 new cases. Last week on the same day, it was nine and twenty-five — and this on one of the lowest reporting days of the week. The states reporting more than 3,000 new cases for the day included Illinois (6,980), Florida (4,865), Texas (4,193), California (3,532), Wisconsin (3,493), and Ohio (3,319). Eleven of the twenty-seven states are in the mid-west, eight are in the southeast and the others are scattered.
The top states for cases per capita are interesting (and were surprising to me): North Dakota, South Dakota, Iowa, Mississippi, and Alabama. The states with the highest per capita deaths remain shaped mostly be the early pandemic: New Jersey, New York, Massachusetts, Connecticut and Louisiana. Tennessee currently ranks 8th in per capita cases and 25th in deaths per capita.
Despite the explosion of new cases, much of the news coverage is directed toward politics. The two also often intersect. Open fighting broke out between President Trump and Dr. Fauci, with Trump crowds chanting “Fire Fauci” and the president indicating he may do so after the election. Dr. Fauci had earlier predicted a bad winter for the U.S. and said we were not prepared.
Public health workers continue to be reviled across the country as they try to stem an out of control pandemic. This piece by CNN reflected the unfortunate reality. Michelle Walker, the local health administrator talks about what its like to feel “hated,” and called a sheep if she wears a mask in her southern Missouri county. The county’s positivity rate is 30%. She said people don’t want to be tested on the chance that they will have to quarantine or perhaps disrupt the local football team. A local person confirmed they are hated for “trying to tell people how to run their lives.” They agreed anyone wearing a mask there will be ridiculed and clearly, they are a Democrat.
With cases and hospitalizations rising rapidly, some areas are imposing new sets of restrictions. A judge in El Paso just ordered a two week lockdown and was immediately sued by restaurant owners who were joined by the Texas Attorney General. Similarly, a heavily Republican county in Iowa issued a mask mandate only to have the Republican governor reject mask mandates saying people need to “learn to live with the virus.”
The virus is becoming nearly untraceable in the U.S. as most people have “no idea” where they contracted the illness. President Trump says there will be no new lockdowns and “the great American comeback is underway.” Donald Trump, Jr. said over the weekend, “Why aren’t they talking about deaths? Oh! Oh! Because the number is almost nothing. Because we’ve gotten control of this thing. We understand how it works — they have the therapeutics to be able to deal with this. If you look at that, look at my Instagram, it’s gone down to almost nothing.”
The state numbers are murky for the weekend. After saying it would not post updates this weekend due to planned system maintenance, the state did report numbers that were incredibly low. New cases, for example, dropped from over 2,600 on Friday to 754 on Sunday, and testing dropped from the mid-20,000s to around 10,000 Saturday and Sunday. Deaths, which were averaging 38 a day as of Friday, dropped to zero for Sunday. It would be the state’s first day with zero deaths since March. 1 new hospitalization was reported.
In other words, these numbers do not seem remotely accurate and must be the result of the system issues. Unfortunately, the state simply released the numbers without clarification. I’m giving the numbers, as always, but I expect them to be revised. Please take the following numbers simply as a reflection of a systemic glitch.
The state reported 754 new cases yesterday, bringing the totals to 246,563 confirmed cases and 14,863 probable cases. 233,175 are considered inactive and 10,035 remain active. No deaths were reported, leaving the total deaths at 3,353 for the state. 1 new hospitalization was reported, bringing the total to 10,307. By these numbers, hospitalizations dropped by about 100 to 1,326. No one died yesterday, leaving the total at 3,353 deaths. Testing was 11,305 for the day with a 6.71% positive test result rate. Johns Hopkins reports the average to be 10.1%
True to their statement heading into the weekend, the county did not report numbers on Sunday and has not posted them for today as of this writing, due to the same system maintenance issues.
University of Tennessee News:
It is unclear how much, if any, University of Tennessee numbers were impacted due to the above issues, but they did post numbers this morning, so I’ll report those.
The university is reporting 68 active cases and after reporting 13 to 14 new cases each day last week, is reporting 5 for Saturday and 1 for Sunday. 1,739 students and staff have recovered and 292 are reported to be in isolation or quarantine. There are no new clusters and mass-testing has finished for the semester.
Knox County Schools News:
The schools do not report over the weekend and report at 4:00 pm each weekday, so the most recent numbers are from Friday afternoon. At that time, the school system reported 65 active cases, including 42 students and 23 staff members. 536 have recovered and 1,083 are in quarantine or isolation. The quarantined or isolated total includes 952 students and 131 staff members.
The number of staff in quarantine or isolation appears to be a new high and the student number is near a high. Custodial attendance and substitute availability are rated “yellow.” Even though the teacher/staff availability is rated green for the system, it is bad enough at South Knoxville Elementary that the system announced yesterday that school would shift to virtual-only learning starting today and lasting two weeks.