COVID-19: 7/30/2020 Update

Worldwide Daily Cases 7.30.2020 (Source: Worldometers.com)

Earlier this morning I heard the sound of rain on the roof. We rarely hear it because there is a condo above ours. It made me think of sounds I miss. I miss the sounds of rollers on the bottom of my suitcase as I pull it along to the next destination. I miss the clatter of china and utensils and the murmur of quiet conversation at a nice restaurant. I miss the sound of a great guitar solo while surrounded by frenetically dancing concert-goers. What sounds do you miss?

International News:

Since the beginning of the pandemic, 17,287,630 people have been diagnosed with COVID-19 across the world. 672,159 of these people have died of the illness. Yesterday, 290,674 additional people were diagnosed and 7,023 deaths were reported. About 10.8 million people have recovered and a bit over 5.8 million cases remain active.

Yesterday’s increase in cases was the largest single-day increase since the beginning of the pandemic, displacing the record set six days earlier. The seven-day moving average increased by about 1,500 to 258,771 new cases a day. The rate of increase in the last five days has been slower than the weeks previous to that, which may offer some encouragement.

Worldwide Daily Deaths 7.30.2020 (Source: Worldometers.com)

The 7,023 reported deaths yesterday is the second highest number of deaths across the world in the last three months, second to the same day of the week a week earlier. For that reason, the seven day moving average dropped by 22 to 5,651. The average has declined for two days consecutively so, perhaps we’re seeing a leveling off. The countries fueling international deaths yesterday were Brazil (1,554), the U.S. (1,485), Mexico (854) and India (779). No other country reported 400 or more. A total of ten countries reported 100 or more, with half of them found in Central and South America.

The four countries at the top of the list continue to be responsible for about 2/3 of the cases in the world: Brazil (70,869), the U.S. (66,921), India (52,249), and South Africa (11,362). That said, twenty-seven different countries reported over 1,000 new cases, a new high, if my memory serves. Ten of the countries are in Central and South America, with the others scattered around the globe. Spain, France and Israel have each seen resurgences and are now back into this top group for new cases.

Brazil’s First Lady and a fifth member of the president’s cabinet have tested positive for COVID-19. The EU has revised their travel list and we are still barred from taking a European vacation. WHO is expressing concern over the easing of restrictions in Africa as cases have doubled there in the last month to about a million. Norway and Iceland are reporting spikes in cases and are imposing new restrictions.

U.S. Daily Cases 7.30.2020 (Source: Worldometers.com)

National News:

Since the beginning of the pandemic, the United States has reported 4,593,625 cases of COVID-19 and attributed 154,399 deaths to the illness. Yesterday, 66,921 new cases were reported, along with 1,485 additional deaths. About 2.3 million people have recovered and about 2.2 million people have active cases. The average daily cases continue to show a slow decline, with the current average of 66,683 new cases about 2,500 below the peak of a few days ago.

Deaths, however, continue to rise. Yesterday’s 1,485 deaths is the highest single-day total since May 27. The average is currently 1,022, over 1,000 for the first time since June 3. Florida has hit a new high in deaths three consecutive days. States pacing the country in deaths yesterday were Texas (313), Florida (216), and California (195).

U.S. Daily Deaths 7.30.2020 (Source: Worldometers.com)

Fifteen states reported 1,000 or more new cases, yesterday, with five states reporting multiple thousands: California (10,609), Florida (9,446), Texas (9,217), Georgia (3,271) and Arizona (2,339). Other southeastern states in the top group include Tennessee (#6), South Carolina (#7), Louisiana (#8), North Carolina (#9), Mississippi (#11), Alabama (#12) and Virginia (#16).

Former presidential candidate and the head of Black Voices for Trump has died of COVID-19. Fox News reports that he attended President Trump’s rally in Tulsa and did not wear a mask. He was hospitalized less than two weeks later. Schools in Washington, D.C. have announced they will have virtual education for all students for the first semester.

On Fox News today, Dr. Birx reiterated that hydroxychloroquine has not been shown to be an effective treatment for COVID-19 and expressed confidence that Remdesivir does so. As the U.S. economy has shrunk at the fastest pace in history as Republicans struggle to agree on the next relief package. President Trump raised the possibility that the presidential election might need to be delayed.

Tennessee Daily Cases 7.30.2020 (Source: TN.gov)

State and Local News:

The state of Tennessee crossed the 100,000 mark yesterday, reporting 1,778 new cases of COVID-19 to bring the pandemic total to 100,822. 21 deaths were reported, bringing that total over the 1,000 mark at 1,020. 2,369 people were moved to recovered status, and 21 people died, dropping the total active cases by over 600, to 37,673.

110 additional Tennesseans were hospitalized with the illness bringing the total hospitalized since the beginning of the pandemic to 4,482. The number currently hospitalized grew to 1,161 COVID-19 patients, with 332 cases pending. About 19.6 K tests were reported, bringing that total to about 1.45 million.

Tennessee Daily Testing and Positive Test Result Rate 7.30.2020 (Source: Johns Hopkins University)

The four-day moving average of new cases is 2,507, the new high mark for the pandemic. The trend in deaths is also upward, now sitting at a seven-day moving average of 19 per day, more than twice what it was at the beginning of the month. The positive test rate is 8.5%, below its high earlier this week of 9.2%, but well above the 5% goal. The number of Tennessee children being diagnosed with the illness has increased by about 33% in the last ten days, which is in line with state numbers for adults.

Locally, the Knox County Health Department is reporting 108 new cases, bringing the local total since the beginning of the pandemic to 3,641. It marks the ninth consecutive day new cases have topped 100, a mark only reached three times prior to that and all since July 14. That said, today’s number is the lowest of the nine days.

1,643 people have recovered and the number of active cases sits at 1,967, the same as yesterday. There have been 190 Knox County residents hospitalized with the illness at some point and there are currently 39 receiving treatment there. There are 119 probable cases, which marks a substantial drop from yesterday and previous days.

Four additional deaths were reported today, all in the 75+ age group. There were five COVID-19 deaths from March through June. There have been 26 reported in July.

In local news, the Knox County Board of Health ordered bars closed starting Sunday night. The move was opposed by Mayor Jacobs. An Oak Ridge Schools employee at Jefferson Middle School in Oak Ridge tested positive for COVID-19 on Tuesday and another employee who splits time between there and Oak Ridge High School tested positive on Wednesday. Half the students who are doing in-person education reported today. Two doctors are behind the lawsuit mentioned in last night’s Board of Health meeting. Their suit alleges that faulty data was used to support a mask mandate.

Comments

  1. Stephanie Quist says

    Alan, I just want to say thank you again for your reporting. The inclusion of math and science without political agenda makes you a trusted and reliable news source.

  2. The sound of my granddaughter giggling. I haven’t seen her since March and only a few FaceTimes. Thank you as usual!

  3. Any idea how long it takes for test results to come back now? I know it varies depending on the type of test and where you have it done.

    • KnoxvilleUrbanGuy says

      Dr. Buchanan said it is getting better for the moment, though they didn’t seem sure that was the end of the problem. The KCHD had been taking up to 10 days, and now that is shortening. Some places have been at 48 hours pretty much all along.

      • Jennifer says

        The office I work in sends them out at the end of the day and receives the results back between 2pm & 7pm the next day. Every lab is different. I don’t have any answers for why we get our results back so quickly. (It is not a “rapid” test.)

  4. Thank you for your tireless reporting on this issue, Alan. All of your time, hard work, and thoughtfulness are appreciated, even if we readers don’t say so enough. I would love to see an article, here or elsewhere, on how to deal with the naysayers, deniers, complainers, and those who refuse to acknowledge the situation, won’t wear a mask, and simply fail to show compassion to others. I am as weary of these people as I am of the pandemic itself.

    • Sue Groves says

      Well said! I think the naysayers deserve a free, one way ticket to a deserted island. The situation has become draining and they are pulling my energy down.

  5. Thank you, Alan. I miss the white noise of a long airplane ride.

    Using your numbers I have calculated current death rates and applied them to current active cases. If the trends hold, there will be another 138,000 deaths in the US just from the cases that are active as of today. That doesn’t count positive tests tomorrow or the next day or next month. For Tennessee, that would be another 616 and for Knox County another 36 deaths. I don’t understand how anyone with this information can carry on as if everything is normal. It’s not politics – it’s science and math.

    • I’d call into question your math, in that case, if you believe that a sudden eradication of the virus for all but those presently infected would lead to the death counts you mentioned.

      • I’m just going by what has happened so far. There are currently almost as many active cases in the US as resolved cases and out of those resolved cases there have been over 150,000 deaths. It stands to reason that there will be a similar percentage of still active cases that result in death. I would love to be wrong. I don’t think I am.

        • I wanted to question your math, because it seems impossible, but I looked back at the numbers and unfortunately I agree with you. Using the Knox County numbers (now updated for Friday counts):
          Total Known Outcomes: 1,643 recoveries, 33 deaths
          Death rate of known outcomes: 1.97%
          Current Active Cases: 2,085
          Expected Additional Deaths from Active Cases: 41

          I’m sure there is a more nuanced case to be made, but even if the number is half of that, it’s still terrifying.

  6. Thank you very much Alan.

  7. Was the mayor Kane referral a slip or a tongue-in-cheek jab?

    • KnoxvilleUrbanGuy says

      A complete and utter slip. A friend pointed it out and I changed it. I try not to take jabs in these articles.

  8. I’ve had trouble sleeping the last few nights (old age, I guess), and Alan’s posts are popping up in my email after 1:00 am. I know you’re burning the midnight oil to keep us informed — thank you!

  9. Bill Hearn says

    Thank you Alan! I appreciate your adherence to reporting the numbers and the science. You help me understand the situation we are all in together. Wear a mask you filthy animals!

  10. Jennifer says

    I miss the sounds of my whole family bickering over each other at a birthday dinner. I miss singing along with a crowd whether it’s at church or a concert. I miss the whoosh of a roller coaster going by. Thanks for your reporting. It’s very much appreciated.

  11. Happy Place Folks says

    We enjoy hearing from you, greatly appreciate your diligent efforts and reports, but agree that it’s possible to miss certain things too, especially if we choose to think about what might be missing.

    There are several things we don’t miss. In fact, we have found that we actually prefer home grown fruits and veggies, home cooked food and home popped corn while we watch Netflix and simply avoid grumpy people and those who bicker in general.

    It’s pleasant to hear birds singing, watch the fireflies, and just take life at a slower pace, simply appreciatIng the small joys. Life is about perspective, finding something to be grateful for each day.

  12. I miss a good long hug. I can’t imagine not giving one or getting one for months to come.

  13. Oslo Cole says

    So the man who thinks it’s safe for kids and teachers to return to the classroom thinks it’s too dangerous to vote on Nov. 3rd?! Are we living in the twilight zone? Oh no that’s right, we’re living in the red zone. SMH.

    And thank GOD Mayor Kane isn’t the one making the decisions about the health and safety of our community. He should be ashamed of himself for the the role he’s play in endangering the lives of the citizens of Knox County. He should return to the wrestling ring where he can do the least amount of harm!

    I miss the sound of the buskers on market square. Are those folks still out there? If not, i hope they’ve found a way to make it through these troubling times. I’ll not take them for granted ever again!

  14. The sound of grinding coffee beans at the coffee shop on Gay Street😎

    • KnoxvilleUrbanGuy says

      I love that sound. Fortunately, we still hear that sound every morning. And the five-year-old requests his morning coffee bean, which he pops in his mouth. My parenting skills may be a little rusty, but that’s ok, right? Right? 🙂

      • Our daughter used to enjoy an occasional coffee bean at that age and she just graduated from college (summa and Phi Beta Kappa in physics). I think it’s okay. 😁

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