COVID-19: 7/28/2020 Update

Worldwide Daily Cases 7.28.2020 (Source: Worldometers.com)

Is it Friday, yet? No? 🙂 Ok, I hope your week is off to a good start. If you missed this morning’s article, you might want to check it out. I included monthly charts, which some of you had requested. It’s a good drippy day outside. Perfect for staying home, if you can do so. If you have to go out, I heard that masks keep your face dry. Just a suggestion.

International News:

To date, 16,729,838 people have been diagnosed with COVID-19 across the world and 658,974 people have died of the illness. Yesterday, 218,307 new cases were confirmed and 4,200 deaths were added. About 10.3 million people have recovered and almost 5.8 million cases remain active.

The number of cases is higher than a week ago, when it was roughly 205,000. The seven-day average continues to track upward, but perhaps more slowly than it had in recent weeks. The seven-day average now sits at 255,714, about 1,800 higher than yesterday. A week ago our daily average number of new cases was 228,807.

Worldwide Daily Deaths 7.28.2020 (Source: Worldometers.com)

Daily global deaths also continue to rise, but at a very slow rate. Yesterday’s total of 4,200 compares to 4,049 deaths the same day last week. The seven-day moving average of deaths is currently 5,676 deaths each day. A week ago the average was 5,241. The current average has steadily risen to about where it was on May 1. The countries reporting the most deaths yesterday were India (636), Brazil (627), the U.S. (596) and Mexico (306).

The new cases continue to be both concentrated and wide-spread. Twenty-five different countries reported at least 1,000 new cases yesterday. That said, familiar names continue to to reside at the top of the list for most new cases in the world: The U.S. (61,571), India (46,484), and Brazil (23,579). Of the three, Brazil had shown some sign of leveling off in both cases and deaths, but has now seen a jump in identified cases. Deaths remain relative level at this time.

Japan, seen as a model in handling the virus, is seeing an increase in cases. Madrid is now requiring masks in public. Fearing Germans have become complacent, given rising COVID-19 case numbers, and the government is urging a return to the careful behaviors that brought the pandemic under control. To provide perspective, the German government is concerned because 3,611 new infections were reported last week in the country of 83 million. It’s a number not much larger than the state of Tennessee (population 6.8 million) has reported twice on recent days.

U.S. Daily Cases 7.28.2020 (Source: Worldometers.com)

National News:

4,452,709 Americans have been diagnosed with COVID-19 and 151,493 have died of the illness. Yesterday, an additional 61,571 cases were reported, along with 596 additional deaths. Over 2.1 million Americans have recovered and close to 2.2 million cases remain active.

If there is a semi-bright spot, it is in the number of new cases, which seem to have leveled off. That’s the good news. It’s akin to your doctor informing you your temperature is no longer rising, but it is currently sitting at about 106°. It’s good news, but you are still very ill. No country in the world has come close to the current number of daily cases the U.S. is adding. When we shut our economy down, we were adding less than half as many cases each day.

All that said, new cases have been more-or-less level for the last twelve days or so. Yesterday’s 61,571 compares to 62,879 a week earlier. The seven-day moving average is 67,426 and a week ago it was 68,263. We have to level-off before we can drop, so that’s hopeful.

U.S. Daily Deaths 7.28.2020 (Source: Worldometers.com

Deaths are not as encouraging, which makes sense, as they trail cases by about a month. Yesterday’s 596 deaths compares to 538 on the same day a week earlier. The current average is 964 deaths each day, which has risen from its recent low of 520 on July 5. The average number of deaths has now risen to comparable levels of that on June 5. Texas (97), California (92) and Florida (78) led the country in deaths yesterday after leading in cases in recent weeks. Each of the three have set new state records for most deaths in a day over the last week.

In new cases, a full 18 different states reported over 1,000 new cases yesterday. Some of the names are new or have not appeared frequently on the list: Oklahoma, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Missouri, Maryland, Ohio and Washington. Six states reported multiple thousands: Florida (8892), California (7,630), Texas (6,187), Georgia (2,890), Tennessee (2,553) and Louisiana (2,343). Other southeastern states ranking highly for new cases include Alabama (#7), North Carolina (#9), Virginia (#10), and South Carolina (#14).

Florida has apparently set a record for deaths today and Texas is reporting a death just about every six minutes from the virus. Dr. Fauci has Tennessee and a few other states on his mind today. Here’s a look at some of the issues regarding what to do when a new case of COVID-19 is discovered in a school. It assumes that schools should not open without dropping or very low rates of new infections and positive test results – conditions we do not currently enjoy in Tennessee.

Tennessee Daily Cases 7.28.2020 (Source: TN.gov)

State and Local News:

The biggest news in the state yesterday, was the visit of Dr. Birx from the White House Task force. She came bearing pretty straightforward news: They believe Tennessee is in trouble and it is about to get much worse unless we follow their recommendations: Mandate masks, close bars and reduce indoor restaurant seating while limiting social gatherings. Governor Lee thanked her for her time and made it clear he would do none of these things. For a more complete look at the visit, including a video, go here.

Since the beginning of the pandemic, 96,489 Tennesseans have been diagnosed with COVID-19 and 978 deaths have been attributed to the illness. Yesterday, 2,553 new cases were reported in the state and eleven people died. An additional 2,509 people recovered, pushing the number of recoveries to 57,239. The net active cases for the day was 33, which is encouraging, but it pushed the total currently active cases in the state to 38,272. A week ago, active cases numbered 32,933, giving us an over 16% increase for the last seven days.

48 additional people were hospitalized yesterday in the state and there are currently 1,121 COVID-19 positive Tennesseans who are hospitalized. Two weeks ago this number was 867, for a 29.2% increase over the period. 299 cases are pending in hospitals across the state. Hospital availability numbers: Beds (19%), ICU Beds (14%), Ventilators (67%). A week ago, these numbers were 20%, 19% and 67% respectively.

Tennessee Daily Testing and Positive Test Result Rate 7.28.2020 (Source: Johns Hopkins University)

The state reported giving about 28.5 K tests yesterday, for a total of about 1.4 million. The positive test result rate continues to be high. The chart above has it at 8.5%, but Dr. Birx yesterday, quoting the same source I use, said it was over 10%. When that has happened in the past – by a statement from state health officials, they were looking at data that would show up on the site in coming days.

Locally, the Knox County Health Department is reporting an increase of 167 new cases today, bringing the pandemic total to 3372 for the county. This is the second highest daily total, behind last Thursday. It marks seven consecutive days of adding over 100 new cases.

The number of active cases is now 1,893. A week ago the number of active cases was 1,334, yielding a 41.9% increase in active cases in a one week period. The number of total Knox County resident hospitalizations dropped over night from 193 to 184 and currently hospitalized dropped from 45 to 37. I assume a determination was made that a significant number of people previously counted as Knox County residents properly should have been assigned elsewhere. I’ve placed an inquiry.

There were no additional deaths and there are 147 probable cases.

In area news, Sevier County delayed the beginning of school by four days. Memphis delayed theirs by three weeks, to August 31. All Nashville (Davidson County) students will start the year with virtual instruction until at least after Labor Day.

Comments

  1. Carol E. Myers says

    The only reason Sevier County Schools delayed the start date by four days was to have two additional days to train teachers on their “hybrid learning model”. It really had nothing to do with how many COVID cases were in the county. Although, to be fair, they did add an amendment to be able to allow the superintendent to alter school attendance without a specially called board meeting. I anticipate we’ll have rolling closures throughout the year.

  2. Ben King says

    Thank you for putting this together. I try to read your information along with what tracking I can do. I wish more would do the right thing so we could get through this.

  3. “Governor Lee thanked her for her time and made it clear he would do none of these things.”
    Perfectly stated and very sad. Please keep up the great, honest reporting.

    • Kathy Mahan says

      Exactly. National expert makes a point of coming to Tennessee….a hot spot…..makes her recommendation and gets kicked in the teeth by our governor. Wow. He is so ignorant. I know thousands of people are suffering medically and financially, but what about the stats in Tennessee? They are appallingly high. And our governor chooses NOT to govern. Very sad indeed.

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